Johnny Matheis's Horse Racing Fan Profile

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Who am I?

Began in the horse industry as an owner, for an underrated trainer named John McCord. In a small stable, this means being a hotwalker and groom, also. I now work in pari mutuels, and worked four different states. And I'm not finished.

Interests

bridge, film work, Horse racing, NFL

Main Skills

handicapping. I'm here so that we can all keep reminding each other that the only way to ever win money is to be considered an i, Like everyone who visits

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Johnny Matheis
Friday 27th February 2009, 11:24pm
Lets not kid ourselves. Picking superperfectas of the prep, and picking Derby winners is seperate. I'll try to bring up a general point and a specific point in each comment. First, the general point. The Derby prep races for Saturday, Feb 28, which will be soon. The Sham offers a heavy favorite inThe Pamplemousse. If he is beat, then there will be a good story. The Battaglia at Turfway has a obvious favorite in Proceed Bee Proceed Bee (who I'm listing at 9-5) is well bred for more classic distances. He won the Grand Canyon at Churchill last November, and came back in January to run 5th of 7 at Oaklawn. He is facing a group that must prove themselves. Usually, in a 1 1/16 mile race, someone does. Stratos, trained by James Baker, is stretching out, as is Shanes Gold, and both are well bred enough for the distance. Still, Proceed Bee is a solid choice, and should hit the boards. The high profile Derby prep is the Fountain of Youth of course, which seems a bit short at only 1 mile. Many of the entrants are in Future Book 1, which helps make this an even higher profile race. Beethoven has to be considered for the favorite role, with a Grade 2 win at Churchill last November. Actually, this is the sort of race that determines who will be a high profile contender, at least until the Derby. The specific point (or general if you think of it that way) is who people pick for their Derby horse from the first future book. It was certainly a good time to go for the field. The reason being that too many of the 23 named contenders began their careers too early. If a thoroughbred begins running in May of a 2 year olds season, he needs outstanding luck to keep from breaking down by Derby Day. No professional gambler would ever take low odds on a 2 year old wonder in May to win the Kentucky Derby. 7 of the 23 had 3 races under their belts already by Sep. 15, 2008. No pro would ever consider any of these at under 80-1 odds, even for a stab. They can be tossed out altogether. It would take a 1 in a 100 chance for a colt like this to still have a chance on Derby Day. There are just too many ways for a horse to get hurt, added onto them being pushed too hard too early. By the beginning of this year, of the 16 left, 3 had 5 or more races already. Too many to take anything under 35-1. That still leaves 13 credible picks, but few with the desirable bloodlines for Derby distance. Midshipman is in the hands of Godolphin Stable, who really need to prove themselves in the Derby. No one would want to take low odds on them. Hello Broadway hasn't been pushed too hard by Barclay Tagg. He's a grandson of Unbridle and Storm Cat, wo he bred reasonably well. The longer the race, the less desirable the performances of Capt. Candyman Can, Giant Oak, and West Side Bernie, though the latter two seem to like added ground. Fairgrounds heroics don't usually translate well at Derby time, which is bad news for Friesan Fire. The first pool would've been the time to take him, because once he faces Grade 1 rivals, he'll either move up the standings and to lower odds, or he'll be out of the Derby picture. The same goes for Taqarub. For Future Pools, one wants to take a contender whose odds will either go down or be out of the picture in later races. A bet on Breeder Cup winner Midshipman, for example, would've made no sense. His odds will steadily go up, and he probably won't be out of the picture for a while, so a fan of Midshipman would be foolish to bet him in Pool 1. This doesn't help, ipso facto, but should give bettors an idea when Pool 2 comes along. That is the specific point. Picks for Saturday: skipping the Sham and taking the Battaglic and the Foutain. Battaglia: PROCEED BEE, Shanes Gold, Stratus. Foutain: THEREGOESJOJO, Beethoven, Capt. Candyman Can

Johnny Matheis's Weblog Posts


2009 Breeder's Cup hurt the industry posted on 11/09/2009

This means that the 2009 Breeder Cup Races overall were not successful.

First, the absence of the three greatest trainers meant that they didn't feel they had entries worthy. From my earlier posts, I did warn the public that this meant many of these more common trainers were just there to booze it up and bet other trainers' horses. This is very bad for the industry. It is corrupt.

It was obvious the fields were substandard for the Breeder Cup races. I pegged Go Ponti for the classic because of the average field. He ran second, which poroved my point.

Now for a realistic evaluation of why this year's Breeder's Cup was a failure. Not a bad failure, but undeniably not a success.

From past Breeder Cups, the ones which were legitimate, with trainers running to win, we see usually decent payoffs. Low payoffs are the first sign of dishonest backsides. It means, as I said, that people backside are boozing it up and betting other people's horses. Some races are "training" races, once common, but almost nonexistent now are the need to get about three races off a layoff before a horse is ready. Nowadays, most trainers do so many workouts, they are ready right away, and with the hard surfaces of tracks that don't care a bit about a horse's health (like Churchill Downs), one race may be enough to break a horse down again.

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Breeder's Cup missing the giants posted on 11/07/2009

These 2 days of racing in California, what sticks out the most is the absence of the giants in the industry. The three most respected trainers, McGaughey, Zito, and Nafzger not only don't have any entrants in ANY of the Breeder Cup races, but in none of the other races on the cards.

We know these three don't enter unless they feel they have a strong chance. This year, as we see from the low payoffs, there are too many trainers just "showing up to lose". Theses races are supposed to be the BEST in each race, and logically should be all 7-1 in a 10 horse field. Low payoffs are a sign of dishonest and poor training.

And low payoffs don't mean Good Form. The low payoffs yesterday were all incredible UNDERLAYS, horses who ran the best races of their lives, and who would've been 15-1 or higher to anyone who reads the Daily Racing Form. So, is the Daily Racing Form giving false information? I doubt that. Instead, this means that other trainers in the races are there to booze it up and bet down these underlays.

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2 year olds at Churchill 11-1-2009 posted on 11/01/2009

Each horseplayer has to have an edge, which is a secret only he uses. If other people use it, then he gets underlays and not only does he become a loser, but so do the people who steal his picks. In other words, if Joe picks the 3 horse and bets 5 to win, and Jenny decides to do the same, and she tells Fran and Bill, who each tell two friends, and before long Joe's 5 dollars is represented by 300 dollars, since at least one of those friends is an idiot who bets big money, and there are those at the track who simply bet what they see money bet on, and they can easily turn a 28-1 into a 12-1. Joe's available profit turns from 56 dollars (58.00 payoff) to 24.00 (26.00 payoff). He has to hit this twice as often. He plays it because if he wins one time in 30 he comes out ahead. Now one time in 30 puts him behind, because his own friends cut their own throats just to cut his. That's what it amounts to.

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Weekend before Breeder's Cup posted on 10/30/2009

The most striking thing about this year's Breeder Cup races are the absences of the super top trainers, namely the big 3-McGaughey, Zito, and Nafzger. I have to respect them for not entering just to enter, but only when they feel they have the top runners.

 Meanwhile, while the world focuses on California next weekend, Keeneland is still the top dog this weekend.

McGaughey sends out PARADING in the Grade Fayette at 1 1/8 mile.  Those who saw him win the Ben Ali last Spring at Keeneland had to feel they were watching the future Breeder Cup Classic winner, but Shug knows his horse, and where to put him.

Listed at 7-5, on paper he would be 4-1 if anyone else trained him. Still, Shug is the man.

The second choice, BLAME, will be about 3-1, and is truly vulnerable. The good news is he is lightly raced, and shows a good forward move.  The bad news is his class is based on a restricted stakes race and a second in a lackluster Grade 2 field.

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NFL Forecast posted on 08/26/2009

We'll get back to horse racing soon. This is a lull in the season. Now, even the horse players are focused on the NFL. Who will be better? Who will be worse.

 In this analysis, I simply take what the teams had, what they lost and gained, and weigh all the potentials. For example, 3 first and second round draft pick linebackers in their third year would translate into at least 2 successes.

NFC East:

1. NEW YORK GIANTS figure to win about 12 games and have the best shot to win the division. They are especially strong in the running game, but also are very good in pass offense, pass defense, and rush offense.

2. WASHINGTON REDSKINS have an aged offensive line, and that does fit well with a defense that will be near the best in the NFL. They should take about 11 wins and be in the playoffs.

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